Plan Continuation Bias (and why it’s bad)

I’m taking a sabbatical from writing new blog posts. You’ll be seeing some re-runs and old favorites for the next little while. You can always write me back with suggestions or ideas just by responding to this email!

I’ve been listening to a fascinating podcast called “Cautionary Tales,” recorded by an economist by Tim Harford. In each episode, he recounts a real story about something that went famously wrong, and he illuminates a larger lesson.

In the first episode, he tells the story of the Torrey Canyon, a huge and beautiful ship that wrecked on a famously deadly reef after its captain and crew steered it there. The story of how it happened is an example of “plan continuation bias,” defined by the APA Dictionary of Psychology as the tendency of people to continue with an original course of action that is no longer viable.

Of course, I started thinking about instances of PCB in my own life and work. As a person who is neurotically punctual, I will sometimes prioritize being on time (the original plan), over other, arguably more important needs, like packing a lunch or picking up a prescription. 

But the place I see this most often is with clients, and it comes up this way: 

We have X time to do our presentation. Oops! Suddenly we learn that the time has been shortened. But the plan is to say all of these words! We will stick to the plan, even though a major variable has changed, and sticking to the plan will (metaphorically) steer our presentation onto the rocks.

The reason PCB takes hold is that we don’t have the bandwidth, in a high-pressure situation, to figure out a new plan. All we can do is move forward with the first one.

I propose that you combat PCB with a three-step process. First, take a breath, lower your anxiety. (Watch this video!) 

Second, think about what you want the outcome to be. What do you want to happen as a result of your presentation? What’s most important? 

Third, make a new plan that will still achieve the outcome. This will be much easier if you plan your presentation with a clear understanding of what outcome you are trying to achieve. You can get there by answering the question, “If my audience doesn’t remember anything else, what do I need them to walk out of here thinking about?”  Once you know the answer to this, it becomes much easier to find that new plan when things go sideways. The objective keeps you focused on what you are there to create for your audience, not the now-defunct plan you put in place.